中国住宅价格调控效应:区域差异与时序波动

The Effect of Housing Price Regulating:Regional Difference and Timing Fluctuation

将35个大中城市按照高、中、低房价划分为一、二、三类,利用含银行信贷与经济增长联动效应的住宅价格波动模型对分类面板进行了截面和时间双重维度的分析,结果显示在区域差异和时序波动方面存在规律性。具体来讲：一类城市住宅价格对区域内银行信贷与经济增长的联动效应最敏感,且存在信贷推高住宅价格的显著现象;三类城市住宅价格波动在调控下较二类城市更剧烈。1999～2012年14年间35个大中城市均显著存在经济增长逐步推高住宅价格的经济关系,而银行信贷对住宅价格的推动作用则存在着三类城市与一、二类城市相反的现象;2012年一、二、三类城市住宅价格受影响因子作用程度与1999年的初始次序完全相反。

The 35 cities were divided into first,second and third class according to high,medium and low housing price;then using housing price volatility model with bank credit and economic growth linkage effect,we analyzethe classified panel data from dual dimension of cross-section and time.Results show that there are regularity in regional difference and timing fluctuation.In particular,housing price of first class cities is most sensitive to linkage effect of bank credit and economic growth,and the phenomenon of credit pushing up housing price is significant.Housing price of third class cities fluctuates more intensely than that of the second class cities under the regulation.There are significant economic relations of economic growthpushing up house price in35 cities during 14 years from 1999 to 2012.The effect of bank credit on housing price of third class cities is opposite to first and second class.After 14 years the affected degree of factors to first,second,third class city housing price are exactly opposite to the initial order in 1999.