北京二区县2013年1月雾霾事件人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险回顾性分析

Retrospective study of respiratory disease mortality risk during air pollution episode with fog and haze in two counties of Beijing, January 2013

目的探讨北京2013年1月雾霾事件PM_(2.5)暴露对城区和郊县居民呼吸系统疾病死亡影响的急性健康效应。方法收集2013—2014年间北京PM_(2.5)浓度、温度、相对湿度,以及二区县(某城区和某郊县)呼吸系统疾病死亡数据;以连续3 d以上超过2013—2014年PM_(2.5)年均浓度为基准对2013年1月雾霾事件划分时间段;基于流行病学事件回顾性研究,使用广义线性模型,同时控制星期效应、死亡时间趋势、日均温和日相对湿度等混杂因素,分析北京2013年1月雾霾事件各时间段内人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险是否与非雾霾事件期存在差异,并通过敏感性分析观察模型稳定性。结果 2013—2014年北京PM_(2.5)年平均浓度和2013年1月雾霾事件期间PM_(2.5)日均浓度分别是99.75μg/m^3和194.30μg/m^3。广义线性模型结果显示与2013—2014年非雾霾事件期比较,该雾霾事件1月10—16日时间段内PM_(2.5)污染暴露使得二区县居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别提高75.93%(95%CI:14.13%~171.21%)和147.81%(95%CI:11.62%~450.16%);而在后续两个雾霾时间段(1月18—23日和1月26—31日)中PM_(2.5)暴露对于呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响与非雾霾事件期无统计学差异(P>0.05)。结论北京2013年1月10—16日雾霾事件PM_(2.5)高暴露期所致人群呼吸系统死亡风险增加。

Objective To explore acute impacts of PM_（2.5） exposure on respiratory disease mortality of residents living in urban and rural counties during air pollution episode with fog and haze in Beijing, January 2013. Methods The data of PM_（2.5） concentration, temperature, relative humidity and two counties＇ respiratory disease mortality from 2013 to 2014 were collected in Beijing. Air pollution episode with fog and haze was divided into periods by using the definition that lasting more than three days and PM_（2.5） daily concentration above mean level of two years. Generalized linear models（GLM） were adopted to explore whether PM_（2.5） exposure affected residents＇ respiratory disease mortality significantly, after adjusting confounding effects of the day-of-the-week effect, time trend, daily temperature and relative humidity. Sensitive analysis was used to estimate GLM stability. Results The daily average concentration of PM_（2.5） in 2013 to 2014 and air pollution episode with fog and haze were 99.75 μg/m3 and 194.30 μg/m3 respectively. Compared with non-episode days, PM_（2.5） exposure of 10 th to 16 th in January during air pollution episode with fog and haze induced significantly increase of disease mortality risk in the two counties [75.93%（95%CI： 14.13%-171.21%） and 147.81%（95%CI： 1.62%-450.16%）], and there was no significant difference between other periods（18th to 23 rd and 26 th to 31 st, January） during air pollution episode and non-episode days（ P〉0.05）. Conclusion Higher concentration of PM_（2.5） exposure during air pollution episode of 10 th to 16 th in January 2013 with fog and haze increases people＇s respiratory disease mortality in Beijing.