天津市淡水养殖用地适宜性评价

Suitability Assessment of the Land for Freshwater Aquaculture in Tianjin

采用层次分析法(AHP)从自然资源、发展基础条件、市场前景三方面共计选取22个评价因子构建了适宜性评价指标体系,将德尔菲法(Delphi)与AHP法相结合确定各层评价因子权重,形成天津市淡水养殖用地适宜性评价模型。通过大量的实地调研和相关统计数据及地图的搜集,将数据标准化形成评价模型的基础地图,模型的运算结果将天津市淡水养殖用地分为四个适宜性等级,分别为非常适宜、适宜、一般适宜和不适宜。评价结果表明,天津市可用于淡水养殖的区域共计63 142 hm2,主要为适宜和一般适宜地区,分别占42.38%和56.56%;非常适宜地区占0.62%,主要分布在宝坻区南部;不适宜地区最少,占0.44%,主要分布在东丽区南部。通过养殖面积现状和可用面积的对比得出天津市发展淡水养殖潜力较大的主要有宁河县、滨海新区、西青区以及静海县;武清区、宝坻区、北辰区的淡水养殖发展相对充分,但仍具备发展空间。在此基础上从自然资源、发展基础条件等方面分析了天津市各个区县的养殖发展前景,并给出发展建议。为了进一步扩展适宜性评价应用领域,共享研究成果,还整合模型构建方法,研究开发了基于Arc GIS的桌面版和网络版水产养殖规划管理系统,该系统目前已上线运行。

The evaluation index system of the land for freshwater aquaculture in Tianjin was built based on the analytical hierarchy process（ AHP） method with 22 evaluation factors selected from natural resources,conditions for basic development,and prospects of market. In the system,the weights of different layers were determined by Delphi method combined with AHP. Using large quantity of field investigation and collecting relevant statics and maps,a basic map was developed as the evaluation model consists of standardized data. The land used for freshwater aquaculture in Tianjin was divided into 4 grades for different suitabilities： unsuitable,moderately suitable,suitable and very suitable. Results of evaluation indicated that 63 142 hm2 area could be used for freshwater aquaculture in Tianjin. They were mainly moderately suitable and suitable,accounting for 56.56% and 42.38%,respectively. Very suitable area accounted for 0.62%,mainly distributed in southern of Baodi District. Not suitable areas were the least,accounting for 0. 44%, mainly distributed in southern of Dongli District. By comparing the present status of aquaculture area with the available areas,the following counties with great potential were found to develop freshwater aquaculture： Ninghe Country,Binhai New Region,Xiqing District and Jinghai Country. Wuqing,Baodi and Beichen Districts were relatively developed,but there was still room for further development. On this basis,the paper analyzedthe prospects of aquaculture in various districts and counties were in terms of natural resources and conditions for basic development,and then put forward suggestions for future development. In order to expand the application areas of this suitability evaluation and share the research results,a system were developed for planning and management of aquaculture-the desktop and network version based on Arc GIS. This system has been running on line.