我国羊肉价格波动的周期测定及政策启示

The Determination of Mutton Price Fluctuation Cycle and Policy Implications in China

长期以来,频繁的外部冲击导致羊肉价格大幅波动,对肉羊产业形成巨大冲击。掌握羊肉价格波动规律,并测定外部冲击影响的大小,有利于国家精准调控政策的及时出台。运用B-N趋势周期分解法将1994年6月~2014年3月羊肉价格的时间序列进行周期测定,通过VAR模型分析其他畜禽肉类价格波动对羊肉价格波动的冲击作用,并测算随机冲击的持久效应。研究结果表明：我国羊肉价格有稳定增长的确定性趋势;周期性波动剧烈,根据波动趋势可划分为6个完整的周期;牛肉价格和羊肉价格之间存在着长期稳定的影响作用,而猪肉和鸡肉价格波动对羊肉价格波动影响较小;随机冲击对羊肉价格上涨总体呈抑制作用,但近两年表现为助推作用。

For a long time,mutton price fluctuates sharply under the effect of frequent external shocks,which is not conducive to the steady development of mutton sheep industry. Therefore,grasping the changes rule of mutton price and calculating the effect of the external impacts are advantageous to the regulation policy-making. The trend cycle of mutton price time series from June 1994 to March 2014 was decomposed based on the B-N decomposition method,the impact of prices fluctuation of other livestock and poultry meat was analyzed based on the VAR model,then the persistent effect of random impact was calculated. The results showed that mutton prices had deterministic trend of steady growth; the actual cyclical fluctuations were very violent,which could be divided into six periods generally.There was a long-term stability between the price of beef and mutton price,however,the pork and chicken price fluctuations had smaller influence on mutton price fluctuations. The cumulative effect of random shocks inhibited the rise of prices generally,but promoted mutton prices into the uplink channel quickly in the past two years.