海洋经济历史数据推算方法研究

Research on the Deduction Methods of Marine Economic Historical Data

海洋经济日益受到社会各界的关注,而海洋统计数据的积累是一个长期的过程,在海洋经济分析研究过程中,有必要对海洋经济的历史数据进行推算,以延长海洋经济数据时间序列,满足计量分析对数据的需要。在研究实践中,总结了比重法、灰色—周期外延组合模型、趋势外推法、指数平滑法等适用于海洋经济分析的历史数据推算方法,提出了各种方法的适用条件,并进行了实证分析。实证结果显示,根据指标数据实际情况选用适当方法能够较好推算海洋经济历史数据,但各推算方法只适用于个别指标缺少少量数据的情景,且可采用多种方法组合的形式进行历史数据推算。

Marine economy is increasingly attracting attention from all circles of society, so are the marine economic statistic data. However, the development of marine statistics needs long-termeffort. In order to meet the needs of economic analysis, it is necessary to deduce the historical data of marine economy to extend the marine economic data series. Based on research and practice, this paper summarized some methods that can be applied to the deduction of marine economic historical data, such as proportionmethod, gray-periodic extensional combinatorial model, trend extrapolation, exponential smoothing etc. Also we illustrated the applicable conditions of every method and employed empirical analysis to testify those methods. The exemplified result shows that marine economic historical data can be deduced at a relatively acceptable accuracy, if we selectappropriatemethod according to the data situation. But the methods can be appliedonlywhen a small amount of dataare lacked. And multiple methods can be combined to deduce the historical data if it is necessary.