2015年6月2-4日景德镇地区特大暴雨过程中尺度对流云团分析

Analysis of the Cause of Heavy Rainstorm on June 2^(nd) to 4^(th) 2015 over Jingdezhen

利用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、卫星云图和雷达等探测资料,分析了2015年6月2-4日发生在赣北的一次特大暴雨天气过程,从环流形势、物理量特征、中小尺度天气系统等方面进行了分析。结果表明:这次暴雨是发生在高空低槽和低层低涡切变线相配合的环流背景条件下,同时低层的湿区深厚,南部有西南水汽输送,为暴雨区域输送充沛的水汽,低层有不稳定能量积累,大气层结不稳定。在以上有利的情况下,低层风场的辐合触发不稳定能量释放,生成多个MβCS,具有严密组织环流的MβCS合并发展及其缓慢移动,是此次暴雨发生的直接原因。卫星云图和雷达组合发射率的配合使用能够监测MCS的发生发展,并对其造成的强降水进行预警。

Based on NCEP reanalysis data and the conventional observation data,the rain process happened on June 2ndto 4thin north of Jiangxi province was analyzed,which surrounded the aspect of the circulation situation,the feature of physics,the meso and micro-scale system. The results showed that the circulation of the heavy rain is the combination of the trough in high level and the shear line in low level. The deep wet layer and the southwest wind provide abundant water vapor for this rain process. The accumulation of the instable energy made the stratification unstable. All this circumstances generated many meso-scale convective systems and they moved toward the heavy rain area in order. The combination of satellite cloud image and radar combination can monitor the development of MCS and the strong precipitation caused by it.