BT债务风险控制框架初探——基于系统动力学视角

Research on Framework of Risk Control of BT Debt:From the Perspective of System Dynamics

目前,控制BT债务规模引发的风险、避免政府债务危机尤其重要。依据风险能量释放理论,以风险能量为度量手段,采用系统动力学模型的仿真模拟方法,构建BT债务风险系统动力学模型,在此基础上解析BT债务风险系统的因果关系,确定BT债务风险系统的存量流量情况,以此形成BT债务风险控制框架。

Currently,to control risks caused by BT debt scale and avoid the government debt crisis is particularly important.According to the risk energy release theory,the paper takes risk energy as a measure of risk and uses the simulation method to build dynamics model of BT debt risk system. On the basis,analyzes causality of BT debt risk system,determines the stock flow,in order to form the control framework of BT debt risk system.