基于公平与发展的中国省区碳排放配额分配研究

The Carbon Emissions Quota Allocation Research of Chinese Provinces Based on the Justice and Envelopment

在对国内外常用的几种碳排放配额分配原则进行总结和评述的基础上,运用最优经济增长模型估测得到平稳增长条件下未来的经济总量、碳排放需求量,以此为基础对中国各省市自治区的碳排放配额展开研究。根据前瞻性原则、人口原则、GDP原则、GDP-人口原则、支付能力原则5种碳排放权分配方法,计算和分析了中国30个省市自治区2010～2050年的碳排放配额,经对比分析可知,前瞻性原则下各省域配额差距更小,更适合区域经济发展。

In this paper, we have summarized and reviewed several commonly carbon emission quota allocation principles in China and abroad, and calculated the demand of total GDP and carbon emissions under the conditions of the balance economic growth by optimal economic growth model, which is the basis for carbon e mission quotas allocation to provinces and autonomous regions in China. According to the principles of prospective, population, GDP, GDP-population and capacity to pay, we calculate and analyze the carbon emission quotas of 30 provinces and autonomous regions from 2010 to 2050. In conclude, the principle of prospective is more suitable for China which has a smaller gap between regions compared with other quotas allocation principles.