微博、信息披露与分析师盈余预测

Weibo,Information Disclosure and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

信息技术和社交网络的发展改变了信息的数量、类型及其传播方式。作为金融市场上最专业的信息使用者,分析师无疑会受到这一变化的影响。文章研究了上市公司开通微博对分析师盈余预测的影响,结果发现:(1)开通微博后,分析师盈余预测的修正频率增加,说明分析师会使用微博信息及时更新盈余预测。(2)开通微博后,分析师的平均盈余预测偏差和盈余预测分歧度都显著下降,说明微博信息是分析师进行预测的重要信息源,有助于其更好地了解和分析公司的经营活动。(3)开通微博后,公司股价对分析师盈余预测修正的反应更大。一个合理的解释是,投资者对微博发布的信息反应不足,而分析师能够帮助理解这些信息。文章的研究结论对于监管部门制定基于微博的社交网络信息披露标准,以及分析师如何在资本市场信息定价效率方面最大程度地发挥作用具有参考意义。

The development of information technology and social networks leads to changes in the amount,types and transmission routes of information.As the most professional information users,it is no doubt that security analysts are influenced by this change.This paper studies the effect of the usage of Weibo among companies on analysts＇ earnings forecasts.It arrives at the conclusions as follows：firstly,the frequency of analysts＇ earnings forecasts revisions increases after the launch of Weibo,showing that analysts can use Weibo information to timely revise earnings forecasts;secondly,the average earnings forecasts error and dispersion both decrease after the launch of Weibo,showing that the information disclosed through Weibo is an important source helping to develop analysts＇ earnings forecasts and is beneficial to better understanding and analysis of corporate operation activities;thirdly,the sensitivity of stock prices to analysts＇ earnings forecasts revisions increases after the using of Weibo.One possible explanation for this phenomenon is that individual investors cannot fully understand the information disclosed through Weibo,and analysts can help them to understand the information disclosed through Weibo.These conclusions have the reference for the formulation of information disclosure criteria through social networks based on Weibo and the exertion of the role of analysts to the largest extent in information pricing efficiency in capital market.