政府支出的构成与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

The Composition of Government Spending and Economic Fluctuations in China

政府支出对于一国经济波动具有显著性影响。基于我国的现实数据,向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数证实:(1)生产性政府支出与消费性政府支出对于总产出具有不同的冲击效应,并且生产性政府支出对于产出具有相对较大的影响;(2)无论是政府生产性支出还是消费性支出,其对于不同部门的产出均具有不同的冲击效应,即政府支出的冲击效应具有部门依存性特征。在此基础上,文章建立了一个包含不同部门与政府支出不同构成成分的多部门经济NK-DSGE模型,考察了政府支出冲击的不同构成成分对于我国经济波动的影响。贝叶斯脉冲响应分析的结果支持了经验证据,并且模型主要变量的周期性特征与现实数据较为接近。在此基础上,贝叶斯冲击分解的结果指出,相对于消费性政府支出而言,生产性政府支出冲击对于各宏观经济变量的波动具有更大的推动作用。因此,在使用支出政策熨平经济波动时,政府需依据现实经济情况及时调整政府支出的构成。

In this paper, we consider a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium mociel including heterogeneous sectors and alternative components of government spending, and investigate the sectoral and aggregate effect of government spending on China＇ s economy. The impulse response functions of exogenous shocks show that： （1） government productive spending has a much bigger effect than consumptive spending; （2） the effect of government spending characterized by sector dependence. Further, the result of Bayesian shocks decomposition argues that, compared to the consumptive spending, the productive spending has a much bigger effect on the fluctuations of macroeconomics. Then, the government should adjust the composition of government spending according to the situation of the economic condition when the spending policy was used to stabilizing the economic fluctuation.