基于退化失效与突发失效竞争的导弹剩余寿命预测

Remaining life prediction based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure for missiles

为了提高导弹剩余寿命预测结果的准确性,本文综合利用导弹的性能退化数据和突发失效时间数据,提出了基于退化失效和突发失效竞争的剩余寿命预测方法。在引入状态空间模型评估出整弹退化程度的基础上,采用Gamma过程建立退化失效模型;在假定突发失效概率与整弹性能退化程度相关的前提下,采用Weibull分布建立突发失效模型;进而建立退化失效与突发失效竞争模式下的导弹可靠度模型。案例应用证明了所提方法的有效性,对准确预测导弹剩余寿命,有效开展视情维修具有一定的工程价值。

In order to improve the accuracy of remaining life prediction for missiles,aprediction method,which is based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure,with the comprehensive utilization of the degradation data and failure time data of missile,is proposed.A condition space model is used to evaluate the degradation rate of the whole missile and then Gamma process is utilized to establish the degradation failure model.Assuming that the probability of traumatic failure depends on the degradation rate of the whole missile,Weibull distribution is used to establish the traumatic failure model.Finally the reliability model based on competing risks is set up.The application to a case validates the effectiveness of the proposed method.This study is of engineering value for accurately predicting the remaining life of missiles and performing condition-based maintenance.