锡林郭勒盟草原雪灾社会影响评价

Social impact assessment of grassland snow disasters in Xilingol League

为探究草原雪灾发生后对草原牧区社会与人们活动造成的影响,以锡林郭勒盟为研究区,以2010年为典型案例年,收集了案例年的气象数据和社会经济数据并结合实地调查数据,选取社会与个体、社会与家庭、社会与机构、社会与秩序、社会与稳定和社会与心理为指标,利用熵组合权重法、加权综合评价法建立了锡林郭勒盟草原社会影响评价模型,对研究区雪灾产生的社会影响进行初步定量评价及区划。结果显示:锡林郭勒地区草原雪灾社会影响具有明显的空间差异性,总体特征为中部偏低,两边偏高,东部地区雪灾社会影响最高;雪灾对锡林郭勒盟社会秩序、社会稳定和社会心理三个方面的影响较为明显;降雪量与草原雪灾社会影响存在趋同效应。研究结果可以为内蒙古锡林郭勒盟雪灾管理提供参考。

To explore the impacts of snow disaster on the society and human activities of the pasturing area, this pa- per took Xilingol Leagueas as the study area and choose 2010 as a typical case year. After collecting data of meteor- ological, socio- economic and field survey data and using the combination entropy weight method and weighted comprehensive evaluation method, a social impact assessment model was established to perform assessment and zon- ing for the social impact of snow disasters from the relation between society and individuality, family, organization, order, stability, and psychology. The results showed that, there was a significant spatial difference in the social im- pacts of grassland snow disasters. The general characteristic was that, the impact was low in the middle and high on both sides, and the highest social impacts was on the eastern regions. The impacts on the social order, social sta- bility and social psychology were more obvious than other parts. Snowfall and social impacts of grassland snow dis- asters possessed convergence effect. This research results could provide a reference for snow disaster management inXilingol League, Inner Mongolia.