房价预期、土地价格与房地产商行为

Housing Price Expectations,Land Prices and Behavior of Real Estate Enterprises

本文在分析我国土地市场中存在的"玉米法律悖论"基础上,构建了一个考虑房地产商投资决策与房价预期的土地价格均衡模型,重新剖析了房地产市场对于土地市场的影响途径,从理论上探讨了房地产商的房价预期对于其在土地市场上拿地行为的影响。同时,本文采用"先检验工具变量有效性、再判断模型内生性、最后确定模型形式"的逻辑顺序来检验房价预期对于土地价格的影响,从而避免工具变量误选和内生性问题考虑不周而带来的模型误设。研究表明,房地产商的房价预期对于其在土地市场的行为有重要影响,房地产商针对市场变化对于房价预期的调整速度越快其在土地市场上就越有作为。同时,本文结论还表明,房价对于土地价格没有直接影响,相对于房价本身而言,房价预期对于土地价格的影响更为明显。

Based on an analysis of the＂Corn Laws Paradox＂in the land market,this paper builds a land price model taking real estate investment decisions and housing price expectations into account. We re-analyze the affect pathway from real estate market to land market,and explore the housing price expectations of real estate enterprises and their behavior in the land market. We adopt the logic order＂first testing the effectiveness of instrumental variables,then judging the endogenous of the model and finally determining the model form＂to avoid model misspecification. The results show that the housing price expectations of real estate enterprises have significant impact on their behavior in the land market,and that the faster they adjust housing price expectations,the better they perform in the land market. This paper also shows that in China＇s land markets,the land prices are mainly affected by the housing price expectations but not by housing prices themselves.