医疗支出、抚养比例与农村消费——基于西北五省面板数据的实证分析

Medical Expenses,Dependency Ratio and Rural Consumption——An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data of 5 Northwest Provinces

为探寻我国西北农村消费落后的原因,以城镇化、抚养比例、医疗费用以及社会保障等为视角,利用2003—2014年西北五省数据,通过建立面板数据回归模型,对西北农村居民消费的影响因素展开实证分析。研究结果表明:城镇化率对当前西北农村消费影响尚不显著,而农村居民收入和就业率均与后者存在显著正相关;医疗支出的增加、少儿与老年抚养比的增长都不利于西北农村居民消费水平的提升。最终提出了深化西北城镇化建设、增加农民就业岗位、稳步提升农民收入及完善农村医疗养老保障制度等政策主张。

In order to explore the reasons why rural consumption was backward in 5 northwestern prov-inces,from the perspectives of urbanization,dependency ratio,medical expenses and social security,an empiri-cal analysis about the influence factors of rural resident consumption in northwest China were conducted by constructing the panel data regression model according to the data of 5 northwestern provinces from 2003 to 2014 . The results showed that urbanization ration was not obvious in the influence of rural resident consump-tion,while rural resident incomes and employment rates had significantly positive correlation with the latter. Moreover,the increase of medical expenses,the proportion of children and aged-dependency were not advan-tageous to the promotion of rural resident consumption in the northwest. Finally,some policies and proposals were presented,including deepening the construction of northwest urbanization,increasing the posts of peasant employment,raising the peasant income and perfecting the rural medical care security system.