广西民生性支出对城乡居民消费的异质效应研究

On the Heterogeneous Effects of Guangxi Welfare Expenditure on Urban and Rural Resident Consumption

文章利用广西1981—2013年的时间序列数据对民生性支出及结构对城乡居民消费的异质效应进行实证研究,结果表明:民生性支出对农村居民消费的挤入效应大于对城镇居民消费的挤出效应;教育、科技、医疗卫生和社会保障支出挤入城镇居民消费,文化支出挤占城镇居民消费;科技、医疗卫生和社会保障支出挤入农村居民消费,而教育和文化支出挤占农村居民消费;教育和医疗支出对农村居民消费的替代效应不及对城镇居民消费的互补效应,科技和社会保障支出对农村居民消费的引致作用均大于城镇居民,文化支出对城镇居民和农村居民消费的替代效应相差不大;收入能有效地拉动内需。基于此,广西民生性支出应向农村倾斜,加大对农村的财政投资力度,以改善消费环境,促进农村居民消费的增长。除此之外,还应提升农村居民的收入水平,以缩小城乡居民消费的差距。

Based on the 1981-2013 time series data of Guangxi,this paper studies the heterogeneous effects of welfare expenditure scale and structure on urban and rural resident consumption. The result shows that： the crowding in effect of welfare spending on the rural resident consumption is more significant than the crowding out effect on the urban residents. While the expenditure on education,science,health care and social security crowd in the urban consumption,the culture expenditure crowds the urban consumption out. The expenditure for science,health care and social security packs the rural consumption,but the education and culture expenditure crowds the rural consumption out. The substituent effects of education spending on the rural consumption are weaker than the complementary effects on the urban consumption. The positive effects of science and social security spending on the rural consumption are greater than those in urban areas. The substituent effects of culture expenditure make no difference between the urban consumption and rural consumption;incomes can effectively promote domestic demand. Based on the results,the paper points out that the government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region should increase welfare investments,reinforce the financial input,and improve the consumption environment in rural areas so as to stimulate resident consumption. In addition ,measures must also be taken to elevate the income level of the rural residents and narrow the gap of betwean consumption between rural and urban places.