中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究--基于劳动力成本上升的背景

The Demand and Substitution Relations of Grain Production Factors

论文采用1991～2013年中国粮食生产的相关投入与价格数据，基于超越对数成本函数的影子替代弹性估计方法，实证分析了劳动力成本上升背景下我国粮食生产的要素需求与替代关系，研究发现：（1）我国粮食生产的要素需求正处在理性的价格调节区间，要素价格仍然是调节要素需求的经济杠杆；与劳动力和化肥相比，机械投入对价格变化更为敏感，更容易受自身价格变化的冲击。（2）农业机械与劳动力存在明显的替代关系，且替代关系越来越强。这说明在劳动力成本快速上升的情形下，利用机械替代劳动可以大幅减少农业劳动投入，特别是可以有效缓解劳动力选择性转移带来的劳动力结构性短缺问题。（3）化肥与劳动也存在明显的替代关系，但替代关系稳中略降。经济激励是农户决策的首要考量因素，在劳动力成本快速上升的背景下，选择多量少次的施肥方式、增施化肥并减少农家肥投入，用化肥替代劳动成为农户的理性选择。

Using investment and price data in China's grain production from 1991 to 2013,this paper empirically analyzes the factor demand and the substitution relations between factors in grain production against the background of labor costs rise through the estimation of shadow elasticity of substitution in translog cost function.The study fiunds that:(1)The factor demand of grain production is in a rational price adjustment range,and factor price is still the economic leverage adjusting factor needs;(2)There is an obvious substitution relation between agricultural machinery and labor,which means that using machinery to replace labor can significantly reduce agricultural labor input and effectively alleviate the constructive shortage of labor force caused by the selective transfer of labor force;(3)The substitution relation also exists between fertilizer and labor.In order to choose more-amount-and-less-times fertilizing style and to increase chemical fertilizer application while reducing the farmyard manure input,replacing labor with fertilizer should be a rational choice of the farmers in the consideration of rapidly rising labor costs.