考虑船舶随机到港影响的集装箱港区实时交通仿真模型

Dynamic traffic simulation model for container terminal based on random arrival of vessel

受船舶随机到港的驱动,集装箱港区实时交通量具有较强的随机性,如何合理预测对于港区集疏运系统规划具有重要意义。目前,对于集疏运交通量的预测多根据统计资料利用"不平衡系数法"进行推算,而新建港区往往不具备历史资料,在港区规划初期此方法的应用存在较大局限。本研究构建了考虑船舶随机到港影响的港区作业系统仿真模型,模拟从船舶到港到集装箱离港的整个作业过程,预测出港区的实时交通量,并对模型进行验证。最后以北方某新建国际集装箱枢纽港区为例,分析该港区船舶到港规律,应用仿真模型预测其在不同规模时的集疏运交通量,为分阶段建设该港区集疏运系统提供科学依据。

Influenced by the random arrival of vessel, the dynamic traffic flow of container terminals is full of randomness. How to forecast the traffic flow is very important in the planning of the collecting and distributing systems. Most present studies forecasted the traffic flow based on the statistical information with the method of unbalance factor. But it doesn＇t suit for the newly built port area very well for the lacking of statistical information. In this study, we construct a dynamic traffic simulation model for the container terminal based on the random arrival of vessel, forecast the real time traffic flow reasonably by simulating the process from the arriving of vessel to the leaving of container and verify the reliability of the simulation model. In the end, depending on the regulation of the arrival of vessel, we forecast the collecting and distributing traffic volume of different periods taking a newly built international container terminal for example. This provides a scientific basis for the instalment construction of the collecting and distributing system.