城镇化视角下收入不平等与家庭债务变动——来自中国30个省市的数据

Income Inequality and Changes in Household Debt in the View of Urbanization——Data from 30 Provinces and Cities

基于2004—2013年城镇化水平、收入不平等、家庭债务等变量的数据,构建面板计量模型,检验城镇化水平、收入不平等的变动对家庭债务增长的影响。研究结果表明:在Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ区中,城镇化水平均与家庭债务正相关,各区域城镇化水平的不断提升带来了家庭债务不同速度的增长;而收入不平等对家庭债务的影响具有较明显的区域差异性。在Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区中,收入不平等与家庭债务负相关;在Ⅲ区中,收入不平等与家庭债务正相关。因此,在Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区中,政府应坚持城镇化发展方向,进一步降低收入不平等程度,防控家庭债务过快增长带来的金融风险;在Ⅲ区中,因地制宜制定科学的城镇化战略,加快收入分配制度改革,完善社会保障体系,支持居民合理的消费借贷需求。

This paper uses the data of urbanization level,income inequality and household debt from 2004 to 2013,then building the panel econometric model and testing the impact of the level of urbanization and the change of income inequality on growth of household debt. The results show that in the area I,II,III urbanization is positively related to the household debt. Specifically,continuous increase of the regional urbanization level has brought an increase in household debt at a different speed;However,The effect of income inequality to the household debt reflects an obvious regional difference. In the area I and II,income inequality and household debt are negatively correlated;In area III,income inequality is positively related to the household debt.Based on the empirical results,the paper suggests that in I and II areas the government should adhere to the direction of development of urbanization,further narrowing income inequality,and should prevent the excessively rapid growth of household debt from bringing financial risk;In area III,we should adjust measures to local conditions,speed up the reform of the income distribution system,improve the social security system and keep a reasonable consumption loan demand.