现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——以陕西西安国际港务区建设为例

An Empirical Study on Relationship between Modern Logistics and Foreign Trade:A Discussion on International Port Development in Xi'an

基于陕西省1993-2014年对外贸易总额和货物周转量的数据指标,采用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验、协整检验等方法对陕西现代物流与对外贸易的关系进行实证分析,通过分析得出:陕西省对外贸易水平是现代物流业发展的原因,而现阶段物流业的发展对对外贸易却没有明显的促进关系。因此陕西省着力打造西安"国际港务区"应建立在对外贸易水平提升的基础上,没有贸易水平增长的支撑,单纯的港务区基础建设只会变成"废港"。最后结合当前宏观战略规划、陕西独特城市优势、互联网信息技术快速发展的背景,指出如何提升贸易水平、促进贸易增长,希望为陕西西安国际港务区的建设提供一些思路和启示。

In this paper, based on the statistical indexes concerning the modern logistics and foreign trade industries of Shaanxi for the period between 1993 and 2014, we used the Granger causality check, co-integration test, etc., to study empirically the relationship between the two industries in the province, through which, we found that the foreign trade industry was the Granger cause for the development of the modern logistics industry, while the reverse was not established. Thus, the Shaanxi＇s effort in building the Xi＇an International Port Area should be based on improving its foreign trade level, because without the support of a growing trade industry, the port would be a ＂useless port＂. At last, in view of the current macroscopic strategic environment, the intrinsic advantage of Shaanxi, and the rapid development of the internet and information technologies, we presented several thoughts and insights into the development of the Xi＇an International Port Area.