基于不确定性信息的空战威胁评估方法

A Method of Threat Assessment for Aerial Combat Using Uncertain Information

针对专家先验知识和空战态势信息的不确定性,以证据网络为基本框架,建立了基于敌我双方几何位置关系和运动状态的敌方战机威胁评估模型,首先给出了动态态势信息的信度等级转换及信度值的分配方法,然后针对专家不一致且带有不确定性的属性偏好提出了证据间权重优化方法,最后输入数据,通过网络推理实现敌机威胁等级评估。实例仿真表明,威胁评估模型在不确定性态势信息下能够合理估计敌方单机对已方单机的威胁,证实了模型和方法的有效性。

Aiming at the uncertainty of expert knowledge and situation information in aerial combat,we establish a threat assessment model based on evidence network. The geometric location relation and movement states of both sides of fighting are the two main factors considered in the model. First,the belief level conversion method and that of belief value distribution are given. Then,according to the inconsistent and uncertain attribute preference from experts,a weight optimization method between evidence is put forward. Finally,the threat level assessment of enemy aircraft is realized by network reasoning through the inputting data. The simulation results show that the threat of each enemy aircraft toward each of our aircraft is reasonably evaluated with uncertain situation information.Therefore the validity of our method,including that of the model,is verified.