丝绸之路经济带贸易便利化测度及中国贸易潜力

Measuring Trade Facilitation of Silk Road Economic Belt and Trade Potentiality of China

本文系统构建了贸易便利化测度体系,运用主成分分析法测度丝绸之路经济带的贸易便利化水平,并基于拓展贸易引力模型实证分析其对中国贸易流量的影响,同时模拟估计了中国与各国的贸易潜力。研究表明:丝绸之路经济带贸易便利化水平总体上呈现"欧洲最高,东亚较高,中间最低"的"U"型空间特征;贸易伙伴国GDP、对外依存度、贸易便利化、上合组织等因素对双边贸易流量有显著促进作用,而两国距离、OECD制度安排等存在显著阻碍作用;与欧洲发达国家相比,东亚和南亚、中亚和西亚等亚洲发展中国家贸易便利化及分项指标水平的影响更大;模拟结果也显示后者贸易便利化改善对其与中国的贸易潜力更为显著。

This paper systematically constructs the measuring system of trade facilitation,and analyzes the trade facilitation level of Silk Road Economic Belt based on principal component analysis,and analyzes its impact on China＇ s trade flows based on the empirical analysis of trade gravity model,and simulates the trade potential of China with other countries. The research shows that the trade facilitation level of Silk Road Economic Belt shows ＂the highest level is in Europe,followed by East Asia,finally in the middle area ＂ and＂U- shaped＂ spatial characteristics; trade partners GDP,External dependence,trade facilitation,the SCO and other factors have significant effect on the bilateral trade flows,and the distance between the two countries,OECD institutional arrangements are significantly hindered; compared with the developed countries in Europe,the trade facilitation and each index level of East Asia and South Asia,Central Asia and West Asia and other Asian developing countries is greater; the simulation results also show that the improvement of trade facilitation of the latter has more significant promotion on Chinese trade growth potential.