1980~2010年江苏沿海城市土地利用变化及其与环境因子关系分析——以东台市为例

ANALYSIS OF LAND USE CHANGES IN RELATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN COASTAL CITY IN JIANGSU PROVINCE FROM 1980 TO 2010:A CASE STUDY IN DONGTAI CITY

2009年江苏省沿海开发规划上升为国家战略,了解江苏沿海城市过去土地利用变化轨迹以及驱动因子是未来江苏省沿海城市土地利用规划的重要基础性工作。基于5期TM30 m×30 m RS遥感影像和GIS技术,分析东台市1980~2010年土地利用结构与变化轨迹,并通过典型对应分析（CCA）分析其与环境因子之间的关系。结果表明,东台市1980~2010年主要土地利用类型为耕地（2029.02 km2）、建设用地（155.31 km2）、草地（60.41 km2）和水域（56.56 km2）。近30年土地利用变化量占总面积的16.98%,其中耕地、草地和建设用地变化量最大。土地利用变化最主要轨迹为耕地转建设用地,主要位于市区及周边地区,其次为草地转耕地,主要位于海岸带地区。东台市土地利用变化热点区域分别为市中心和海岸带,二者相距较远,相对独立。CCA分析显示城镇、交通和斑块形状复杂程度等是影响沿海城市土地利用变化的重要因子,海岸线作为沿海城市主要特征,随着海岸滩涂围垦开发,到海岸距离也是沿海城市土地利用变化的重要影响因子。因此,在沿海城市土地利用规划中需要重点考虑城镇布局、交通等基础设施分布、斑块的形状等因子,通过海岸带土地利用方式转变来加强市区与海岸带之间联系,促进社会经济转变,进一步保护海岸生态环境,提高海岸开发综合效益,引导土地利用走向可持续发展道路。

The Coastal Development Plan in Jiangsu Province had risen to national strategy in 2009. The significant ground work of coastal city in Jiangsu Province in the future is to acquaint the trajectories and driving forces of land use change in the past. In the present work, we utilized 5 periods of RS remote sensing images and GIS technology to analyze the land use structure and trajectories between 1980 and 2010. We identified the correlations between different environmental attributes and land use changes by canonical correspondence analysis. The results show that the major land use types were arable land（2029.02 km2）, construction land（155.31 km2）, grass land（60.41 km2） and water land（56.56 km2） in Dongtai city from 1980 to 2010. The variable quantity of land use accounted for 16.98% of the total area, and the arable land, grass land and construction land accounted most. The main land use change trajectory is arable land shift to construction land,followed by grass land shift to arable land. From the point of spatial distribution, the transfer from arable land to construction land mostly located in city and surrounding areas, the transfer from grass land to arable land mainly in the coastal zone areas. The two hot spot regions of land use changes in Dongtai city were city and coastal zone, which are relatively independent and lack of connections.CCA ordination reveals that the environmental attributes like distances to city, to town, to transportation and the shape of patches all had affected the transfer of land use significantly. However, the coastline as the major character of coastal city, with the development of tideland reclamation also had effect on changing the distribution of land use. Consequently, locations of infrastructure like the city and town, the transportation the shape of patches should be consider seriously. By means of change, the land use types in coastal zone can we promote social and economic transformation, further protect the coastal ecological environment, enhance comprehensive benefits of coastal development and lead land use to the sustainable development path.