干旱区河谷城市土地利用生态风险动态预测——以新疆伊宁市为例

Dynamic Forecast of Ecological Risk of Land Use in the Arid River Valley City——A Case Study of Yining City in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

土地利用规划和土地生态安全是土地资源可持续利用的基础和核心。基于伊宁市土地利用总体规划(2010—2020年),依照规划基期年及末期年土地利用结构特征,借助土地利用变化、土地利用类型动态度和生态风险空间分析方法,测算了土地利用生态风险指数。并通过运用ArcGIS 9.3对生态风险进行了系统采样、半变异函数分析及空间插值,研究伊宁市土地利用生态风险动态演变和空间分异特征。结果显示:伊宁市土地利用总体规划对全市土地利用空间结构进行了较大调整,土地生态风险具有明显的区域性,生态安全状况由北向南逐渐加重,且高、较高风险区在南部区域呈圆环式蔓延趋势。在未来土地利用变更中应加强生态环境保护意识,在伊宁市河谷构建良好的生态用地格局,提高土地利用的综合效益。

Planning of land utilization and land ecological security are the foundations and cores of the sustainable use of land resources.We estimated ecological risk index based on the varieties of land use in the overall planning of land utilization of Yining City at two time points：the base year and the end year through change of land use and the method of ecological risk spatial analysis.After sampling was carried out,the semi-varogram analysis and block Kriging were used to analyze the dynamic evolution and spatial distribution of ecological risk of the land use in Yining City by ArcGIS 9.3.The results indicated that the spatial structure of land use had been a major adjustment in the overall planning of land utilization,the spatial distribution of land ecological risk was imbalanced in Yining City,ecological security was becoming more severe gradually from north to south,moreover,the high and the higher risk of the southern area had the tendency of ring type spreading.The change of land use in the future,ecological awareness of environmental protection should be strengthened to build an ecological land pattern in Yining valley and improve the comprehensive benefit of land use in the city.