我国区域产业转移对电力需求空间结构传导效应分析——以工业为例

Analysis of China′s Industrial Transfer Effect on Electricity Demand via Spatial Structure:A Case Study of Manufacture

不同产业能源依赖程度差异会使产业结构变化对电力需求有显著影响。本文从空间视角出发,分析我国工业空间布局特征及对31个省进行产业梯度划分,在此基础上研究产业转移对电力需求空间结构传导效应。结论如下:中国工业发展呈现"东高中西低"的区域特征,产业转移与区域用电息息相关,不仅体现在增速变化趋同,也体现在产业结构与用电结构变化基本一致。由产业结构发展趋势预测:未来东部用电量占比会继续下降,中西部则会上升。

Various industries rely on energy resources in varying degrees,which causes industrial structure shifts to have a remarkable effect on electricity demand.Based on the analysis of manufacturel spatial distribution and classification of 31provinces＇ industrial gradients,this article studies how industrial transfer effects on electricity demand. We conclude that since manufacture development is more advanced in eastern China than in central and western China,industrial transfer is closely related to regional electricity consuming structures. This does not only reflect on the convergence of electricity consumption growths,but also on the consistency in the changes of industrial structures and the electricity consuming structures.Thus we can predict from the trend of industrial development that the proportion of electricity consumption of eastern China consumption will keep declining,while that of central and western China will rise gradually.