两岸经济合作对台湾经济增长和波动的影响(1996—2013年)——基于广义脉冲响应函数之实证分析

The Impact of Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation on the Economic Growth and Fluctuation of Taiwan(1996—2013)——Based on Generalized Impulse Responses Function

近年来,在全球化和亚太区域经济一体化的背景下,两岸经济交流合作快速发展,但是台湾社会舆论对两岸经贸合作的看法日趋多元化。如何科学地确定两岸经济关系对台湾经济增长与波动的实际影响程度,成为一个需要开展实证分析的问题。本文将1996-2013年的两岸经贸数据从台湾对外贸易中分离出来,利用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法实证分析两岸经贸对台湾经济增长和波动的实际影响。检验和分析结果发现,两岸经贸往来对台湾GDP增长率具有正面的效应,但其下降及收敛的速度较快,说明这种正面效应的短期性较为明显;同时,台商投资大陆对台湾GDP增长率的贡献度最大,说明台湾内部的投资缺口日益扩大。本研究对于准确理解全球化下两岸经济关系与台湾宏观经济的动态关联有重要意义。

With the increased influences globalization and economic integration brought to the Asia-Pacific region in recent years, cross-Strait economic exchanges and cooperation rapidly developed and yet at the same time gradually revealed a discrepancy between the two sides of the Strait. The Taiwan society and public have come to view the cross-Strait economic cooperation with diverse opinions and questions. How to scientifically determine the actual impact cross-Strait economic relations have on Taiwan Residents economic growth and fluctuations has become a matter of empirical analysis that needs to be done. This paper separates the cross- Strait trade from Taiwan foreign trade from 1996-2013, uses the Generalized Impulse Responses Function and Variance Decomposition to examine and analyze how cross-Strait trade actually impacts on Taiwan economic growth and fluctuations. The results show that Taiwan Residents investment on the China's Mainland has a positive effect on Taiwan GDP growth rate; however, it quickly declines and constringes at a faster rate, which indicates that the positive effect is obviously short-turn. At the same time, Taiwan Residents investment in the Chinese mainland has the largest effect on the Taiwan GDP growth rate, which implies that Taiwan＇s internal underinvestment is worsening. This study is significant to an accurate understanding of the dynamics and association between Taiwan Residents macroeconomic and cross-Strait economic under globalization.