中国对美国制造业出口二元边际的动态分析

A Dynamic Analysis on Binary Margin of Manufacturing Exports from China to US

文章基于企业异质性贸易模型,采用1992-2014年六位数HS代码的贸易数据,测算出中国对美国制造业出口的二元边际,利用VAR模型实证分析了经济规模、生产率水平、双边贸易成本、多边阻力等因素冲击对中国对美国制造业出口二元边际的动态影响,以及这些因素对二元边际变化的贡献,结果表明:中国对美国制造业出口增长主要沿着集约边际实现,各因素对二元边际的影响机制差异较大,经济规模对二元边际变化的贡献最大。因此,为了提高出口数量及质量,应从出口补贴、市场多元化、技术进步、出口产品升级、贸易便利化等方面做出努力。

Based on the heterogeneous firm trade model, this paper estimates both the intensive and extensive margins of manu- facturing exports from China to US, with the six-digit level of HS trade data ranging from 1992 to 2014. This paper applies a VAR model to make an empirical analysis on the dynamic impacts of various factors （such as economic scale, productivity lev- els, bilateral trade costs, muhilateral resistance and so on ） on the binary margin of manufacturing exports from China to US, as well as the contributions of these factors to the variability of the binary margin. The result shows that the growth of manufactur- ing exports from China to US primarily depends on the intensive margin of trade and the influencing mechanism of the binary margin is quite different among these factors. Moreover, economic scale contributes to the variability of the binary margin most. Therefore, in order to improve the quantity and quality of exports, more efforts should be made in export subsidy, market diver- sification, technological progress, upgrading export product, trade facilitation and so on.