基于CGE模型的碳税政策对碳排放及居民福利的影响分析

Impact Assessment of CGE-Based Carbon Tax on Carbon Emission Reduction and Resident Welfare

本文通过构建可计算一般均衡模型,分析了征收10元/吨、20元/吨、30元/吨和40元/吨碳税对宏观经济的影响,其次,利用经济产出效应和能源强度效应来衡量碳税的减排效果,最后,模拟保持居民福利水平不变的情况,分析碳税的"双重红利"。研究结论表明:碳税是一种可行的政策选择,能够明显降低二氧化碳排放;除政府收入和消费增加,对其他宏观经济变量如实际GDP、名义GDP和居民福利均产生负效应;居民的收入和消费降低,但农村居民和城镇居民受影响的程度存在差异;碳税的实施充分发挥了能源强度效应的抑制作用并减弱了经济产出效应的促进作用;在征收碳税的同时降低个人所得税率,保持居民福利不变,可以实现碳税的"双重红利效应"。

In this paper, the macroeconomic impacts of the carbon tax policy by levying 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton,and 40 yuan/ton based on CGE model are discussed, and the reductions of carbon tax are measured by the economic output effect and en- ergy intensity effect. Finally, the ＂double dividend＂ effect of carbon tax is analyzed by maintaining a constant level of residents＇ welfare. The results show that levying carbon tax is a viable policy which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions obviously; in addition to government revenue and consumption increased, the carbon tax would have negative impacts on real GDP, nominal GDP and residents＇ welfare and some other macroeconomie variables; residents＇ income and consumption are reduced, but the level of the rural residents and urban resi- dents affected by the carbon tax is different; the implementation of a carbon tax to strengthen the constraint of the energy intensity effect and weaken the promotion of the economic output effect; if the residents＇ income tax rate is decreased and the residents＇ welfare is kept fixed, the effect of ＂double dividend＂ could be achieved.