国有股权对我国银行信贷周期性的影响

The Impact of State Ownership on Bank Credit Cycle in China

基于中国106家商业银行1998～2014年的年度非平衡面板数据，利用动态面板系统广义矩方法，本文分析了国有股权如何影响我国商业银行信贷与宏观经济波动之间的周期性特征。实证结果表明，我国商业银行的信贷增速与宏观经济波动呈现出显著的负相关，这种逆周期性与银行的国有持股比例高度正相关，而银行资产负债表渠道的影响相对较小。另外银行信贷的逆周期性在经济紧缩期内表现更为明显，说明银行信贷是政府宏观调控的重要渠道。

Using an unbalanced panel data of China＇s banking industry from 1998 to 2014 and system GMM method, this paper ana- lyzes how the proportion of state ownership affects the cyclical relationship between the credit and c fluctuations in China Empirical results show that China＇s commercial bank credit growth shows a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of macro econ- omy, that is highly correlated with the proportion of state - owned shares, and the influence of bank balance channels is relatively small. In addition, tile cyclical nature of bank credit is more obvious in the period of economic contraction, this also proves that the bank credit is an important channel for the government＇s c control