基于不同季节入院患者人数规律的护理管理研究

Research on Nursing Management Based on Seasonal Rules of the Number of Hospitalization

选择患者入院人数时间序列季节规律为突破口,探讨时间序列分析在护理管理中的应用。以湖北某三甲医院骨科病区2011年11月至2015年7月的月入院人数时间序列为研究对象,将该时间序列分解出季节调整时间序列、季节因子时间序列、趋势循环时间序列、不规则变化时间序列和综合运用滞后分布模型和自回归AR(1)模型建立了统计特征优良的月入院人数趋势循环时间序列预测模型,并综合月入院人数趋势循环时间序列预测模型和季节因子时间序列建立了月入院人数短期预测模型。研究表明,笔者的研究有利于发现创伤骨科患者入院人数的时间变化规律,可为病区管理者平衡护理工作量,合理安排护理临床工作和护理技能学习,实现弹性排班,优化护理人力资源配置,提供有益的参考。

The application of time series analysis in nursing management is almost blank. It choosed a hospital, the number of orthopedic patients admitted time series seasonal rhythm as a breakthrough, explore time series analysis in nursing management applications.. Based on the time series of monthly number of hospitalization in the department of orthopedics from November, 2011 to July, 2015, X12 method and dynamic linear regression model are used to adjust, fit and forecast seasonal rules. The monthly number of hospitalization can be significantly （ p 〈 0. 001 ） decomposed into four ingredient, the combination dynamic re- gression model of ADL and AR（ 1 ） can be used to efficiently forecast trend - cycle time series （p 〈 0. 0001, residual is white noise）, and the combination of dynamic regression model and seasonal factor series can be used for short term forecasting of monthly number of hospitalization. Time series methods are suitable to analyze the time variation rules of monthly number of hos- pitalization. The time variation rules are beneficial for nursing management to balance nursing workload, optimize assignment of nursing human resource, arrange between clinic nursing and nursing education reasonable, implement flexible scheduling, recog- nize problems as early as possible, and speed up learning curve.