基于PRED模型的我国城市空气质量评价

Assessment of China's City Air Quality Based on PRED Model

从空气质量、人口增长、经济发展、能源消耗等维度构建空气质量可持续度人口、资源、环境和发展(PRED)模型,评价全国城市和上海的空气质量.结果显示:2007—2012年全国城市和上海的空气质量总体上处于不可持续的状况;空气质量可持续度PRED模型中的经济发展因子、人口增长因子和能耗因子都表现为增长状态,而发展阶段因子表现为变化不大甚至略有下降趋势,环境质量因子降幅较大;2007—2012年中国城市空气质量处于不可持续的状况,但不可持续状况有所改善.从城市空气质量可持续发展光谱图可知,全国城市空气污染呈现由不可持续状况逐渐向弱不可持续状况过渡的趋势.

From the angles of air quality, population growth, economic development and energy consumption,population, resourse, environment and development （PRED） sustainable model of air quality was built to evaluate both average China＇s cities＇ and Shanghai city＇s air quality. The results show that Shanghai and the average of the whole country＇s cities were in the condition of unsustainable; the parameters in the PRED model show that factors of economic development, population growth and energy consumption are growing, and the development factors and the environmental factors change little and even decline slightly;during 2007 to 2012,the average of the whole country＇s cities＇ air quality is in the condition of unsustainable but improving. From the graph of ＂spectrum＂ of air sustainability,China cities＇s air pollution showed the trend of becoming gradually transition to the weak sustainability.