基于IOWHA算子的对外直接投资组合预测

Outward Foreign Direct Investment Based on IOWHA Operator

在引用诱导有序加权调和平均(IOWHA)算子组合预测模型的基础上,首先分别使用ARIMA模型、灰色预测模型、多元线性回归模型对我国对外直接投资(OFDI)进行预测,然后建立基于IOWHA算子的组合预测模型和评价指标体系;结果显示:IOWHA组合预测模型优于3种单项预测;运用组合预测模型预测我国未来4年的OFDI值,预测值表明未来几年,我国OFDI仍处于增加状态,增幅较大;最后给出相关结论及建议。

Based on the introduction to Induced Ordered Weighted Harmonic Average（ IOWHA） operator combination forecast model, this paper firstly uses ARIMA model, grey forecast model and multiple linear regression model to forecast Chinese outward foreign direct investment（ OFDI）,then sets up combination forecast model and evaluating index system based on IOWHA operator. The results show that IOWHA combination model is better than other three single forecasting model,the combination model is used to forecast China＇s OFDI value in the coming four years,the forecasting value shows that,in the coming several years,China＇s OFDI still rises and has big increase and finally this paper gives the related conclusions and suggestions.