未来中国粮食增产的影响因素研究——基于粮食主产区面板数据的实证分析

A Study of the Factors Affecting China's Future Grain Yield Increase——Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Panel Data of Main Grain Producing Areas

运用1992-2012年中国15个粮食主产区的省际面板数据,构建了粮食产量影响因素模型,研究发现:播种面积、技术进步对粮食产量产生重要的正向影响;受灾面积对粮食产量产生明显的负向影响;增加第一产业从业人员和农业的财政支出也可以提高粮食产量,但作用较弱。其后,又分别对水稻和小麦进行回归,得到的结论与上面的结果基本一致,但水稻和小麦之间的回归系数却存在显著差别。最后,基于实证结论提出了针对性的政策建议。

Using the provincial panel data of China＇s 15 major grain producing areas from 1992 to 2012, this paper constructs the model of the factors influencing grain yield and finds that planting area and technological progress have an important positive effect on grain yield while disaster- stricken area has an obvious negative effect on it and that increasing the number of people work- ing in the first industry and financial expenditure on agriculture can also increase grain yield, but the effect is weak. Then, the results obtained from the regression of rice and wheat are basically the same as the above results, but there is a significant difference in the regression coefficients be- tween rice and wheat. Finally, the policy recommendations are put forward based on the empiri- cal conclusion.