预期寿命延长对居民储蓄的影响:理论与中国的经验分析

How the Life Expectancy Affects the Household Savings:the Theory and Empirical Analysis Based on China

探究现阶段中国居民储蓄持续攀升的原因,寻求可行的治理思路,对于撬动内需具有重要的现实意义。本文从居民预期寿命延长入手,在生命周期理论框架下,构建了一个预期寿命影响储蓄的理论模型,并运用中国省际数据进行了计量检验。结果发现,预期寿命延长对居民储蓄存在显著的正向推动作用,且在不同模型下保持了稳健性,样本期内,预期寿命延长导致的居民储蓄率的增加对总储蓄率增加的贡献度为36.91%。在控制老年人口抚育负担后,预期寿命的估计参数变小,说明预期寿命延长后,老年人口比重增加,从而可能对储蓄形成削减作用。

Studying the cause of continuely climbing Chinese household savings and seeking possible solutions to leverage the domestic demand, this article builds an theoretical model of how expected life span affects savings in the framework of life cycle theory. The econometric test using China＇s inter-provincial data shows that life expectancy has a significant positive effect on household savings,In the sample period, the increase of life expectancy contributes 36. 91% of total household saving growth rate. After controlling the earing burden of aged people, the estimated life expectancy parameter becomes smaller. It means that the increase of older population can have a negative effect on savings.