摘要
选择总量经济、投资消费出口、三次产业、支柱产业、高耗能产业等经济指标,以2002年至2011年时间序列数据库为基础,建立计量经济模型,探索云南经济发展与支柱产业发展间的关系。在此基础上,将发电量、售电量、全社会用电量、城乡居民生活用电量等电力指标纳入分析框架,运用多元回归和格兰杰因果关系分析方法,分析云南省各电力指标与宏观经济指标间的互动关系和相关程度。运用协整分析方法,定量测算各电力指标增长对云南宏观经济指标增长的贡献率。
Chooseing the economic indicators GDP, investment consumption and exportation, thrice Industrial, pillar industry, high energy-consuming enterprises, basing on the time series database from 2002 to 2011, establishing the measure economic model, Explorating the relationship between the regional economic development and pillar industry in Yunnan province. On this basis, incorporatin g the power generation, power sales, total electricity consumption, electricity consumption of urban and rural residents index into the analysis framework. Using multiple linear regression and Grainger causality analysis method. Analysising the interactive relation and correlation degree between the Yunnan power index and macro econometric index. Using the co-integration analysis method, calculating the contribution that power index growth to the macro econometric index growth.
出处
《云南电力技术》
2016年第1期50-52,共3页
Yunnan Electric Power
关键词
宏观经济模型
电力指标
多元线性回归
格兰杰分析
协整分析
贡献率
macro econometric model
power index
multiple linear regression
grainger causality analysis
co-integration analysis
the contribution
