两级生产不确定的煤炭供应链均衡供应策略研究

Balanced Supply Strategy of Coal Supply Chain with Uncertainty in Two-echelon Yields

研究两级生产(原煤开采生产与煤炭洗选生产)与需求不确定下煤炭供应链均衡供应决策问题。首先分别构建两级生产与需求不确定下煤炭均衡供应测度指标与模型、煤炭供应链利润与期望利润函数;在此基础上运用目标规划法,综合以煤炭均衡供应和煤炭供应链期望利润为目标,建立煤炭供应链多目标优化运作模型并进行了模型分析;最后对模型进行应用研究。研究表明,不考虑煤炭供应链中的两级生产与需求不确定性所进行的运作决策,导致煤炭供应链收益大幅降低;煤炭供应链均衡供应的多目标决策模型,可以使煤炭供应链实现一定的利润目标的条件下,实现煤炭的均衡供应,具有合理性和可应用性。

Coal is one of primary energy resources in China, which occupies a very important strategic position in the development of national economy. In order to meet the needs of social economy, coal supply chains pursue not only profit maximization, but also a certain degree of balance across the supply chain. In coal supply chains, raw coal mining, coal washing and coal demand are uncertain. Under the situation of two-echelon yields and demand uncertain, coal supply chains are facing the challenge of how to make scientific decisions in order to realize target profit and balance.Taking the coal supply chain consisting of multiple coal mining enterprises and multiple coal washing enterprises as research objects, this paper researches the balanced supply decision of coal supply chains based on two-echelon yields（coal mining and coal washing） and demand uncertainty. Firstly, the paper gives a scientific definition of a balanced supply of coal. On this basis, the probability of coal supply to meet a certain rate of demand is set as a measure index of the balanced supply of coal. Accordingly, mathematical models of the expected profit of coal supply chain and the measure index of balanced supply of coal are established. On this basis, taking coal＇s balanced supply and expected profits of coal supply chain as goals, we use objective programming to establish coal supply chain using multiple objective optimization operation model. In addition, we analyze the model by using mathematical methods. Finally, by applying this model, reasonable systematic decision of coal enterprise is made. Through the study, the following conclusions can be drawn：（1） When the coal supply chain makes decisions of raw coal and coal washing without considering uncertainty in two-echelon yields and demand, the profit of coal supply chain may be reduced significantly. With uncertainty in two-echelon yields and demand, decisions taking into account the uncertainty in production and demand can help produce more profit than decisions which does not. The result reveals that decisions taking into account the uncertainty in two-echelon yields and demand for the supply chain bear great significance.（2） With the profit maximization as the goal of single objective decision-making, the degree of balanced coal supply is low. In order to avoid carrying too much inventory cost and having the backlog of coal with uncertainty in two-echelon yields and demand, coal enterprises have to control coal production and keep coal supply at a low level.（3） By setting the reasonable weight of expectation profit, the degree of balanced supply of mixed coal and clean coal, the multi-objective decision-making model of coal supply chain can adjust the quantity decision of raw coal production. The model can realize the balance of coal supply on the basis of helping the coal supply chain achieve target profit with the characteristics of rationality and application.