基于最小二乘法的梯级水库洪水峰量关系研究及应用

Research and application of cascade reservoir flood peak relationship based on the least square method

确定洪水峰量关系可为水库调度人员做出决策提供帮助,如果洪水预报精度不高或无预报时,需根据以往经验进行水库洪水调度。针对该问题,可以采用最小二乘法对年最大洪峰流量与对应的一日、三日、七日洪量关系,不同洪峰流量与洪量关系进行统计分析。本文以乌江河流三座梯级水库为例,研究洪水峰量关系,结果表明,洪峰流量相同时一日、三日、七日洪量递增;应用年最大洪峰流量与洪量进行拟合具有代表性。结论证明采用最小二乘法研究梯级水库洪水峰量关系是可行、正确的。

Determination of flood peak relationship can provide assistance for reservoir dispatching personnel to make a decision. If the flood forecast accuracy is not high or flood is not forecasted,reservoir flood can be dispatched according to previous experience. Aiming at the prololem,the least squares method can be adopted for statistical analysis on relationship between annual maximum flood peak and corresponding 1d,3d and 7d flood,and the relationship between different flood peaks and flood quantity. In the paper,three cascade reservoirs in one river are adopted as examples for studying flood peak relationship. The results show that 1d,3d and 7d flood quantity is gradually increased when the flood peak flow rate is the same. Annual maximum flood peak flow rate and flood quantity are applied for fitting with representativeness.Conclusion proves that it is feasible and correct to study cascade reservoir flood peak relationship by the least square method.