中国探空观测与多套再分析资料气温序列的对比研究

A comparison of atmospheric temperature over China between radiosonde observations and multiple reanalysis datasets

为比较中国探空观测与再分析气温的差异,利用中国118站850—30hPa经质量控制和均一化处理后逐月气温和NCEPv1、NCEPv2、ERA-40、ERA-Interim、JRA55、20CR、MERRA和CFSR等8套再分析月平均气温,通过对比1981—2010年探空观测与多套再分析气温序列的平均偏差、相关系数、标准差和变化趋势,分析两者在数值、年际变率、离散度及长期变化的差异。结果表明,中国探空温度原始序列存在较为显著的非均一性,均一化对原始气温序列总体为负订正,对流层上层至平流层下层(200—100hPa)订正值最为显著。均一化气温去除了原始序列中由仪器换型和系统升级等因素导致的系统误差,与再分析气温相关较原始序列明显提高。再分析气温与均一化气温偏差约1℃,多数再分析气温较均一化气温在对流层偏低、平流层偏高。再分析与均一化气温年际变率较为一致,正相关达到显著。多数再分析与均一化气温均在对流层中低层呈上升趋势、平流层中层呈下降趋势。对流层上层和平流层下层不确定性较大。总体上,ERA-Interim、JRA55和MERRA与其他再分析相比更相近中国均一化探空气温。

The quality controlled（RAW）and homogenized（ADJ）radiosonde temperatures at 850—30hPa collected at 118 stations in China are compared,on a monthly mean basis,with the temperatures extracted from 8reanalysis datasets（REA）including NCEPv1,NCEPv2,ERA-40（ECMWF 45-yr Reanalysis）,ERA-Interim,JRA55（Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis）,20CR（20th Century Reanalysis）,MERRA（Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis）,and CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）.Average differences,correlations,standard deviations,and linear trends among RAW,ADJ,and REA for the period 1981-2010 are analyzed.The results reveal significant inhomogeneity in the time series of RAW radiosonde temperature in China;an overall negative adjustment was thus applied to obtain the ADJ temperatures,and the effect the negative adjustment is the most significant within 200—100hPa.Such a homogenization rocess has removed the system errors in RAW possibly caused by radiosonde instrument changes and observation system upgrades.Hence,the correlation is higher between ADJ and REA than that between RAW and REA.The mean difference between ADJ and REA is about 1℃ during 1981-2010,while REA are mostly cooler in the troposphere and warmer in the stratosphere than ADJ;nonetheless,they have a high positive significant correlation and their annual varialility is notably consistent annual variability.Furthermore,the trends in REA and ADJ both demonstrate warming in the lower-mid troposphere and cooling in the mid stratosphere,with large uncertainties found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.In general,ERA-Interim,JRA55,and MERRA are more consistent with ADJ than other reanalysis datasets.