建筑垃圾产量灰色Verhulst预测模型

Grey Verhulst Prediction Model of Construction Waste Output

针对建筑垃圾产量统计偏差大、数据不全面的现象,运用灰色理论建立了建筑垃圾产量的灰色Verhulst预测模型,对沈阳市未来5年建筑垃圾产量进行了预测。与GM(1,1)预测模型相比较,发现灰色Verhulst模型可以满足"优"的精确度要求,并且能够更加合理地反映建筑垃圾产量变化趋势,因此该模型可以用于预测建筑垃圾的产量。

In viewof the big statistics deviation and uncomprehensive data of the construction waste output,this paper uses grey prediction theory to establish the grey Verhulst prediction model of construction waste output,and to forecast construction waste output in Shenyang in the next five years. Comparing with the GM（ 1,1） prediction model,we find that the grey Verhulst model can satisfy the precision requirement of ＇optimal＇,and can more reasonably reflect the construction waste production trends,so the model can be used to predict the production of construction waste.