政策不确定性对企业投资的异质性影响

The Heterogeneity Influence of Policy Uncertainty on Firm's Investment

研究政策不确定性对企业行为影响的文献忽视了政企关系的重要价值。本文利用2005年中国企业投资环境调查数据,以中央政府换届作为事件冲击,从企业所有制性质、高管任命方式及非生产性支出三个维度实证研究了政策不确定性对企业投资的异质性影响。研究结果显示,面对中央政府换届所引发的政策不确定性,企业投资会显著减少。更为重要的是,本文发现,上述负面影响仅存在于政企关系相对较弱的企业之中,即非国有企业、总经理为非政府任命的企业、非生产性支出相对较少的企业。本文的研究结论表明,构建良好和稳定的政策与制度环境,通过政府职能转变以减少其对市场的干预,对于促进企业投资和经济增长具有重要意义。

The literature on the effect of policy uncertainty on firm behavior has largely overlooked the role of the government-business relationship. The paper use firm-level survey data of Investment Climate Survey in 2005 to explore the heterogeneous effect of policy uncertainty measured by turnover of Central government on investment from the perspective of ownership, appointment of CEO and entertainment and travel costs. Therefore, the paper proposes four hypotheses to be tested, they are： Hypothesis 1 ： policy uncertainty has negative impact on firm investment ; Hypothesis 2 ： Compared with state-owoed firms, policy uncertainty has signifi- cant negative impact on the investment of non-state firms ; Hypothesis 3 ： Compared with the firms of general manag- er appointed by the government, policy uncertainty has significant negative impact on the firms of general manager non-appointed by the government ; Hypothesis 4 ： Compared with the firms of higher unproductive expenditure, poli- cy uncertainty has significant negative impact on the firms of lower unproductive expenditure. Our findings as follows. （ 1 ） The regression results of this paper support the hypothesis 1. It means that during the economic transition period of China, policy uncertainty has a significant impact on firms＇ investment. In other words, the investment behavior of Chinese firms have significant policy orientation feature. （2）The regression re- sults of model 1-2 support the hypothesis 2. It shows that in the samples of non-state firms, the interaction coeffi- cients of policy uncertainty and policy sensitivity is significantly negative ; in the samples of state-owned enterprises, the interaction coefficients is still negative, but not significantly. It means that firms build close relationship with government through property rights, in order to reduce the impacts of policy uncertainty. （3） The regression results of mode 3-4 support the hypothesis 3. It shows that in the firms of general manager non-appointed by the govern- ment, the interaction coefficients of policy uncertainty and policy sensitivity is significantly negative; and in the firms of general manager appointed by the government,, the interaction coefficients is negative, but not significant- ly. In general, the firms build the close relations with government by the channel like general manager appointed by government; therefore the general managers have more political resources and information to relieve the negative im- pacts of policy uncertainty to firms＇ investment. （4） The regression results of mode 5-6 support the hypothesis 4. It shows that in the firms of lower unproductive expenditure, the interaction coefficients of policy uncertainty and poli- cy sensitivity is still significantly negative; in the firms of higher unproductive expenditure, the interaction coeffi- cients is negative, but not significantly. As the firms of higher unproductive expenditure, they invest more money and time to build the relationship with government, which helps them to get more information about policy changes and reduce investment risks. In summary, our results suggest that policy uncertainty has negative effect on firm in- vestment. More important, such negative effect only exists in the firms with relatively weaker government-business relationship. So, the paper provides new evidence of the impact of policy uncertainty on firms ＇ investment. Compared with local government leaders change, turnover of Central government bring strong impact and influence on the firms＇ investment. It brings the adjustments of concepts of governance and strategies, which affect the institutional and policy environment. In the nations who have imperfect system like China, policy uncertainty has significant impact on firms＇ investment. Therefore, it＇ s vital for government to strengthen the construction of the formal system in or- der to reduce the negative effects of policy uncertainty like Turnover of Central government ; at the same time, it＇ s very important to frame a better institutional and policy environment by weaken the impact of the relationship be- tween government and enterprises. In the economic transition period, how to create a good and stable institutional and policy environment for firms is very important.