保险业市场约束:来自消费者需求的证据

Market Discipline in Insurance Industry: Evidence from Consumer Demand

市场约束是国内外金融监管体系的重要支柱,消费者是市场约束中的重要驱动力量之一。消费者在市场约束机制中能否以及是否充分发挥了其应有的作用?本文从消费者需求视角出发,使用我国保险业2009―2013年的财务与偿付能力数据,分析消费者需求对保险公司偿付能力风险的敏感性,寻找市场约束发挥作用的证据。研究发现,我国保险市场上存在一定程度上的市场约束,但无论寿险业还是产险业,这一约束作用都比较微弱。消费者需求对保险公司的风险状况不敏感,但对风险状况的变动存在一定的敏感性。

The complexity and opacity are inherent characteristics of financial institutions. Bank and insurance regulators have been reforming their regulation regimes to strengthen the role of market discipline by promote transparency. Market discipline firstly became a new pillar of regulation framework in the new Basel Accord. Afterwards, market discipline also became an important part of regulation in insurance industry over the world such as the Sol- vency lI pillar m. Meanwhile, in our China Risk Oriented Solvency System （CROSS） started establishing in 2012, market discipline is the third pillar with quantitative capital requirement and qualitative capital require- ment. Although market discipline is not a new story, but for the mechanism inside we still don＇ t know much. Taken market discipline as a ＂black box＂ （ Llewellyn, 2005 ）, agents, brokers, auditors, analysts, rating agencies and all other participants play a role in market discipline. Furthermore market discipline is also a mechanism that regulator relies on. Consumer is a big part of market participants, thus, to verify whether or not consumers play its due role in the market discipline mechanism will help us understand to what extent regulator can rely on the market discipline. Most published literatures on market discipline in insurance market tried to find evidence from the respect of consumer demand,i, e. to test the risk sensitivity of consumers. Mostly papers are based on markets in developed countries such as the US and European countries and find significant and robust results to prove the existence. We can see that in Epermanis and Harrington （2006） ,Eling and Schmit （2012） ,Grace et al. （2014） etc.. The main purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between consumer demand （premium growth） and firm risk in Chi- na. Unlike mature markets, there are still few independent ratings like the Financial Strength Rating published by rating agencies of insurance companies for the public in China. So as a substitution, we choose the solvency capital ratio as the variable reflecting the risk condition of insurance companies, the reason is as follows. On the one hand, as a compulsory requirement, the solvency capital ratio should be disclosed in the annual report of companies. The annual report is disclosed compulsorily on the website of company. Hence the solvency ratio is accessible to public if they want. On the other hand, the solvency capital ratio represents the future ability to pay the obligations. It is the best index now can get in China that is both public accessible and reflect risk. We analyzed the risk sensitivity of consumer demand to insurer＇ s solvency risk using the data of both life and non-life insurance companies in China from 2009 to 2013 through regression model. We not only analyzed the rela- tionship between risk levels and consumer demand, but also the relationship between the change of risk levels and consumer demand. We found that there is a certain degree of market discipline in Chinese insurance market, but it is not so significant. Consumer demand is not sensitive to the risk level of insurance company, but it is sensitive to the change of the risk levels in a certain extent. Compared to non-life insurance consumers, life insurance consumers are a little more risk sensitive to the deterioration of insurer＇ s solvency risk. Based on our finding, we consider that the lack of risk awareness of Chinese insurance consumers and the protection of Guarantee fund might be the rea- sons. Another important reason might be that the solvency ratio is not a perfect index that can reflect the firm risk under the current regulations since the calculation method is still with some limitations. Hence, we suggest that it is necessary to enhance the consumers＇ awareness of risk indexes public accessible that can be used to judge the fund should provide limited protection to consumers. and to develop a more risk-based capital requirement and risk of insurance firms. We also suggest that the Guarantee fund should provide limited protection to consumers.