粮食生产潜力中长期预测的验证

Verification of “Comprehensive Prediction Model" in Medium and Long Term Forecast of Grain Production Potential

应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对粮食生产潜力中长期预测的"综合预测模型"进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果如下:(1)预测误差大小反映中长期生产潜力的预测精度,预测误差大的主要原因是经济发达地区高产农田被大量占用或蔬菜、水果面积大幅度增加而短期内使粮食单产下降;(2)就"综合预测模型"中长期生产潜力预测精度而言:国家级大于省级和地区级、省级和地区级大于县级;不同省、不同地区、不同县之间预测精度差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关;(3)粮食生产潜力中长期预测"综合预测模型"是科学的、准确的和实用的,可作为今后粮食生产潜力预测的理论和方法基础。

The ＂comprehensive prediction model＂ in medium and long term forecast of grain production potential was verified and discussed systematically by using the grain production data from 1949 to 2014 in 16 typical counties, 6 typical districts, and 31 provinces of China. The results showed as follows： （ 1 ）The prediction error reflected the forecast precision of production potential in medium and long term, the chief reason of large prediction error was high yield farmlands had been occupied in developed area, and the planting areas of vegetables, fruits increased greatly, that led to decrease grain yield in medium and long term; （2）To forecast precision of production potential in medium and long term, the scale of national was higher than the scale of province, the scale of province was higher than the scale of district, the scale of district was higher than the scale of county. And it was large differences in precision between different provinces, different districts and different counties respectively, which was concerned to the complementarity of domestic climate and the ability of the farmland resistance to natural disasters; （3）The ＂comprehensive prediction model＂ is scientific, accurate and practical, which can be used as a theory and method for forecasting the grain production potential in future.