黑龙江省二孩政策实施后的人口预测分析

Analysis on population forecast of two children policy in Heilongjiang province

以2010年黑龙江省人口普查数据为基础,建立Leslie人口预测模型.分析单独二孩以及全面二孩政策实施后,对黑龙江省未来25年的人口结构的影响,并用转移矩阵分析人口结构的变化.通过孟德尔遗传定律改变生育率参数,计算出2015—2040各个年份的人口数据,并分析对人口老龄化、人口抚养比、人口红利、劳动力供给与就业等方面产生的影响.进而给出实行单独二孩及全面二孩政策的人口结构变化趋势.

Based on the census data of Heilongjiang province in 2010,the Leslie population forecast model was established.The population structure of Heilongjiang province in the next 25 years is analyzed in case that alone two children policy and comprehensive two children policy are carried out,analyzed the change of population structure by transfer matrix.The data of 2015—2040 was calculated by Mendel＇s inheritance law,in the sequel,its impact on population aging, population dependency ratio, demographic dividend, labor supply and employment is analyzed.Furthermore,population structure changing trend after alone two children policy and comprehensive two children policy are implemented was given.