模糊证据理论在大件运输安全评估中的应用与研究

Application and Research of Fuzzy Evidence Theory in the Safety Assessment of Oversized Cargo Transport

在公路大件货物安全运输过程中,为了更全面的分析运输过程中所存在的诸多不确定性风险因素对安全运输的影响,保障大件货物在实际运输过程中的安全性,采用证据理论与模糊集理论相结合的模糊证据理论安全评价方法。在引入证据空间后,建立模糊子集作为证据空间元素,由德尔菲法确定的模糊集合计算出运输安全系统的各个子系统的mass函数,并通过D-S证据理论的冲突证据合成方法,得出公路大件运输安全系统的信任度函数。文中取例验证了该安全评价方法的可行性,为公路大件货物运输前期的运输方案的制订,提供了可靠的安全性评价,具有现实意义。

Aiming at many uncertain risk factors in the security assessment of highway transportation of heavyweight and oversized cargo,and guaranteeing the safety of large- cargo in the actual transport process,a method of security assessment of Fuzzy Evidence Theory combining D- S Evidential Theory and Fuzzy Theory is put forward in this paper. Furthermore,fuzzy subsets in evidence space are established and the probability mass function is also given,the opinion of experts can be described more accurately. Then,a belief function of safety system of highway transportation of heavyweight and oversized cargo can be obtained through Combination Method of Conflictive Evidences in D- S Evidence Theory. Finally,used an example to prove that the method can be work. This method provides reliable safety evaluation for the first transport plan for the highway transportation of heavyweight and oversized cargo,has the practical significance.