中国雾的业务预报和应用

The Progress of Fog Forecast Operation in China

回顾了我国雾业务预报发展的三个阶段(经验预报、主客观相结合的雾预报和精细雾监测预报)的情况及进展,并指出雾预报的发展方向是建立包含先进资料同化系统的高分辨率区域模式系统,在近期仍然需要发展数值预报产品解释应用技术,预报员的经验在提高对大雾这种灾害性天气的预报准确率方面仍然有用武之地。

This paper recalls the situation and progress of fog forecasting operation in China. Three stages are experienced： the experiential forecast stage, the subjective forecast combined with the objective prediction stage, and the fi ne fog monitoring and forecasting stage. It points out that the developmental direction of fog forecast is to establish a regional mode in high resolution system containing advanced data assimilation. At present, it still needs to be developed the explained application method to the numerical prediction products. The experiences of forecasters still play an important role on improving the forecasts of some disastrously heavy fog events.