北京市基础设施与经济社会发展关系

Relationship between infrastructure and socioeconomic development in Beijing

基础设施对城市与区域经济社会发展具有正的溢出效应。本文以北京市为例,分别测度了北京市基础设施对经济增长的贡献率,基础设施部门对其他经济部门的关联关系,以及基础设施与经济社会发展水平的协调度。研究发现:11978-2014年,北京市基础设施对经济增长的平均贡献率为34.9%,其中"七五""八五"和"九五"时期基础设施建设提速,其贡献率高达45%左右;从各基础设施对GDP的狭义贡献度来看,邮电基础设施所创造的GDP最高,占到全市GDP的9%以上,往下依次为交通、能源和水务部门;2交通和能源部门的感应度系数较高,说明其他经济部门的增长将增加对该基础设施部门的需求,进而带动后者的增长,同时也意味着该基础设施部门易对经济发展产生制约作用,需要适度超前建设;3北京市基础设施发展水平相对滞后于经济社会发展,尤其是水务基础设施,虽然在波动中有所改善,但仍然是基础设施发展的短板,与经济社会的协调发展度最低。

Infrastructure has positive spillover effects on economic development. This study took Beijing as a research area and measured the direct and indirect contribution of infrastructure on economic growth, input-output relationships between infrastructure sectors and other economic sectors, as well as the coordination degrees of infrastructure with socioeconomic development level. This study indicates that：（1） the average rate of contribution of infrastructure to economic growth during 1978-2014 was about 34.9% in Beijing. In 1985-1990, 1990-1995,and 1995-2000, the contribution rates reached 45%. With regard to direct contribution, that is, the share of valueadded of infrastructure sector in GDP, the postal-telecommunication infrastructure had the highest direct contribution, which accounted for 9% of GDP. This was followed by transportation, energy, and water-related sectors;（2） transportation and energy sectors had relatively high induction coefficients, indicating that the growth of other economic sectors increased the demand for these two infrastructure sectors, and hence drove their growth. It also reflects that these two infrastructure sectors were mostly demanded by other economic sectors and tended to have restriction effects on economic development, thus required to be constructed in advance;（3） infrastructure development in Beijing lagged behind the city＇s socioeconomic development, especially for the water-related infrastructure, which is still the weakest of all infrastructure sectors and has the lowest coordination degree with the socioeconomic development level, despite that it has gradually improved. On the other hand, transportation,energy, and postal- telecommunication sectors have recently reached a highly coordinated state with socioeconomic development. Among them, the postal-telecommunication sector has developed with the most impressive rate. To conclude, the coordination degree of infrastructure and socioeconomic development in Beijing has entered a moderately coordinated stage since 2010.