2015年全球主权信用风险评级研究

A Research on 2015 Global Sovereign Credit Risk Rating

在信用保险理论及实践中,主权信用风险分析和评估是重要的基础环节。同时,主权信用风险评级体系也是出口信用保险机构最基础的技术体系和核心竞争力。本文基于主权信用风险事件对市场准入国和低收入国家分别构建主权信用风险模型,并基于出口信用保险实践视角设计压力测试方案,对全球192个国家的主权信用风险进行分析和评估。2015年全球主权信用风险水平由低到高,评级为AAA级、AA级、A级、BBB级、BB级、B级、CCC级、CC级和C级的国家分别有14、10、29、19、33、23、33、23和8个。这一研究结果,不仅有助于"走出去"企业加强主权信用风险防范和管理,而且对于我国推动"一带一路"战略的实施和开放型经济的发展都具有重要的指导意义。

In the theory and practice of credit insurance, the analysis and evaluation of sovereign credit risk is an important link. Meanwhile, the system of sovereign credit risk rating is also the most fundamental technical system and core competitiveness of export credit insurance agencies. This article buiha sovereign credit risk model for mar- ket access countries and low income countries according to the analysis of sovereign credit risk events, designed stress testing based on export credit insurancepractices, and analyzed and evaluated the sovereign credit risks of 192 countries. For 2015 global soverei AA,A,BBB,BB,B,CCC,CC and gn C credit risks, 14,10,29,19,33,23,33,23 and 8 countries were rated as AAA, , from the lowest risk to the highest risk. The research result is not only useful for ＂going-out＂ Chineseenterprisesto guard against and manage sovereign credit risks, but also for China to promote the One Belt and One Road ＂ strategy and the development of an open economy.