基于随机概率逆映射的农作物干旱风险研究

A Study on Crop Drought Risk Based on Random Probability and Inverse Mapping

本文使用随机概率逆映射模型生成随机数,进而运用蒙特卡罗方法研究干旱风险对农作物产量损失的影响,在此基础上建立了农作物干旱风险评估模型,该模型解决了传统农业风险量化分析方法中存在的信息丢失问题。通过对吉林省延吉地区的玉米干旱风险进行实证研究发现,农作物干旱风险评估模型能够反映特定地区干旱风险对农作物的影响程度,反映出某一地区农作物对降雨量的依赖程度,综合地反映出特定地区农作物的干旱风险水平。

This paper used the probabilistic inverse mapping model to generate random numbers, and then applied the Monte-Carlo method to study effects of the drought risk on crop yield losses. Then, on this basis, it established the agricultural drought risk assessment model. The model solved the problem of information loss in the traditional agricultural risk quantitative analysis method. Through the empirical study of crop drought risk in Yanji ,Jilin prov- ince, this paper found that the agricultural drought risk assessment model could reflect the degreeof drought risk in specific areas, reflect the dependence degree of crops on rainfall, and reflect the comprehensive risk level of drought in particular regions.