2015年世界及中国乙烯工业发展现状与2016年展望

A Review of World and China's Ethylene Industry in 2015 and an Outlook for 2016

2015年,世界乙烯工业快速发展的态势没有改变,尽管油价下跌缩小了各地区间的竞争力差异,但中东和北美依然保持绝对成本优势,并继续维持较强的出口产品竞争力。同时,低油价对国内的煤制烯烃和甲醇制烯烃等非传统乙烯路线提出了挑战,也为2016年其大量集中投产及生产运营带来不确定因素。预计2016年国内乙烯产能将从2015年的2 117万吨/年增至2 396万吨/年,受国内经济下行压力加大等因素影响,乙烯当量消费增速将小幅下滑至4.7%左右,但乙烯价格及毛利仍能维持在相对不错的水平。

World ethylene industry continued its fast growth in 2015. Although oil price deflation has reduced the cost gap between each route, the Middle East and North America remain their cost advantage and export competitiveness, while the domestic CTO and MTO have suffered a greater impact, which will bring uncertainties to the domestic ethylene industry in 2016. China＇s ethylene capacity is estimated to increase from 21.17 Mt/a to 23.96Mt/a in 2016, while the growth rate of China＇s ethylene equivalent consumption will slow down to 4.7% due to the declining economy. Ethylene price and cracker margin are expected to stay at high levels.