丙烯市场2015年回顾及2016年展望

A Review of Propylene Market in 2015 and a Prospect for 2016

近两年,世界丙烯工业稳步快速发展,产能增长明显。新建装置中丙烷脱氢(PDH)、煤化工以及MTO工艺路线增加明显,丙烯原料来源更加丰富。受此影响,丙烯价格开始与乙烯倒挂,2016年这种状况还将持续。随着中国新建的PDH装置陆续投产,国内丙烯自给率迅速提升,下游部分产品将出现产能过剩的趋势。受需求支持,聚丙烯与丙烯的价差达到近年高点,2016年仍将保持较好水平。

World propylene industry continues its stable growth these years, and world propylene capacity has grown obviously. New routes, such as coal to olefin, methanol to olefin and propane dehydrogenation（PDH）, have been obviously increasing in new propylene production plants. Along with plentiful supply, the price ratio between propylene and ethylene reached 0.57 in 2015, which will last in 2016. On the other hand, China＇s self-sufficiency in propylene is raising markedly because of new PDH plants. Propylene consumption growth in China in 2016 is expected to remain high due to the combination of investment in propylene derivatives, but parts of them have overcapacity problem. Supported by the demand, the price difference between polypropylene and propylene reached high level last year, which will go down slightly in 2016.