碳锁定驱动因素及其作用机制:基于改进PSR模型的研究

Antecedents and Effects of Carbon Lock-in:A Study Based on Improved PSR Model

高碳产业发展的碳锁定效应对碳减排及产业低碳转型造成刚性制约,把握碳锁定的成因进而有效实现碳解锁,是实现高碳产业低碳转型的关键。基于此,构建了碳锁定效应改进PSR模型,从压力、状态、响应三个角度提炼碳锁定效应驱动因素,分析各驱动因素的作用机制。研究表明,我国大力发展工业经济的政策、以煤为主的能源结构和第二产业为重的产业结构,导致了高碳产业发展的"技术—制度"双重锁定,而相关利益主体对变革的阻碍又进一步强化这一状态;解除碳锁定状态,应同时从技术和制度方面入手,需要政府、企业和社会各界的共同努力。

Since the carbon lock-in in the high-carbon industries has impeded the reduction of carbon emission and the transition into a low-carbon economy,it is crucial to explicate the antecedents and working mechanisms of carbon lock-in,to unlock it effectively and finally to achieve the transition from high-carbon to low-carbon. We build the lock-in improved PSR model,extract three driving factors including pressure,status,and response,and analyze the mechanism of these driving factors. The results show that both the technology and policy have locked the economy into the high-carbon emission industries for China＇s more effort in developing industrial economy,heavy reliance on coal-dominated energy and more focus on the second industry. The obstacles from stakeholders strengthen the double lock-in state. To solve such a problem,it requires the joint efforts from the government,the firms and the society,as well as the technological and institutional innovation.